The Relationship Between Violent Political Rhetoric, Murder Rate, Gun Ownership, and Police Deadly Encounters With Civilians

Authors

  • William R. Nugent College of Social Work, University of Tennessee-Knoxville
  • Angie Khalil College of Social Work, University of Tennessee-Knoxville

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18060/27231

Keywords:

police shootings of civilians, police killings of civilians, violent political rhetoric, police violence, deadly encounters

Abstract

Police kill around 1,000 persons annually in the United States. This is a significant issue for social work because of the effects these killings have on individuals and communities. Recent research has shown a positive relationship between violent political rhetoric (VPR) and mass shootings. This study aimed to investigate if a relationship exists between VPR and police violence that results in the death of civilians. This was a secondary analysis of publicly available data on police killings of civilians. The dependent variable was a measure of the number of police violence killings of civilians. Three control variables were included in analyses: monthly gun ownership, monthly average temperature in the U.S., and the annual murder rate in the U.S. An auto-regressive distributed lag error correction time series analysis was used in data analyses, and as a sensitivity check a Poisson time series regression with robust standard errors was also employed. The results showed a positive relationship between VPR and police violence killings of civilians. The principal implication of these findings for social work is that social workers collaborate with professionals in other disciplines to find ways to reduce the use of VPR by politicians and others in the media.

References

Abadie, A., Athey, S., Imbens, G., & Wooldridge, J. (2022). When should you adjust standard errors for clustering? MIT Economics. https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2022-09/cluster-6.pdf

Ang, D. (2021). The effects of police violence on inner-city students. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 136(1), 115-168. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa027

Bailey, Z. D., Feldman, J. M., & Bassett, M. T. (2021). How structural racism works – racist policies as a root cause of U.S. racial health inequities. The New England Journal of Medicine, 384(8), 768-773. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMms2025396

Bor, J., Venkataramani, A., Williams, D., & Tsai, A. (2018). Police killings and their spillover effects on the mental health of black Americans: A population-based, quasi-experimental study. The Lancet, 392, 302-310. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31130-9

Cabrera, J. F., & Kwon, R. (2018). Income inequality, household income, and mass shooting in the United States. Frontiers in Public Health, 6, 1-4. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2018.00294

Comer, B. P., & Ingram, J. R. (2023). Comparing fatal encounters, mapping police violence, and Washington post fatal police shooting data from 2015–2019: A research note. Criminal Justice Review, 48(2), 249-261. https://doi.org/10.1177/07340168211071014

Cook, J., & Cook, S. (2011). Are US crime rates really unit root processes? Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 27(3), 299-314. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-010-9124-4

DeVylder, J., Fedina, L., & Link, B. (2020). Impact of police violence on mental health: A theoretical framework. American Journal of Public Health, 110(11), 1704-1710. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.305874

Edwards, F., Lee, H., & Esposito, M. (2019). Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race–ethnicity, and sex. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 116(34), 16793-16798. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1821204116

Ezeibe, C. (2021). Hate speech and election violence in Nigeria. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 56(4), 919-935. https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909620951208

Fatal Encounters. (2024). Home. https://fatalencounters.org/

Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2024). NICS firearm checks: Month/year by state. https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year_by_state.pdf/view

Garson, G. (2020). Multilevel modeling: Applications in STATA, IBM SPSS, SAS, R, & HLM. Sage. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781544319315

Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 Police Violence US Subnational Collaborators. (2021). Fatal police violence by race and state in the USA, 1980 – 2019: A network meta-regression. The Lancet, 398(10307), 1239-1255. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01609-3

Gun Violence Archive. (2024). Home. https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/

Hemenway, D., Azrael, D., Conner, A., & Miller, M. (2019). Variation in rates of fatal police shootings across U.S. states: The role of firearm availability. Journal of Urban Health-Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, 96(1), 63-73. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-018-0313-z

Jacobs, D., & Britt, D. (1979). Inequality and police use of deadly force: An empirical assessment of a conflict hypothesis. Social Problems, 25(4), 403-412. https://doi.org/10.2307/800504

Jennings, W. G., Hollis, M. E., & Fernandez, A. J. (2019). Deadly force and deadly outcome: Examining the officer, suspect, and situational characteristics of officer-involved shootings. Deviant Behavior, 41(8), 969-976. https://doi.org/10.1080/01639625.2019.1596532

Jetelina, K. K., Bishopp, S. A., Wiegand, J. G., & Gonzalez, J. M. R. (2020). Race/ethnicity composition of police officers in officer-involved shootings. Policing: An International Journal, 43(2), 263-270. https://doi.org/10.1108/PIJPSM-10-2019-0166

Kalmoe, N. (2014). Fueling the fire: Violent metaphors, trait aggression, and support for political violence. Political Communication, 31, 545-563. https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2013.852642

Kalmoe, N., & Mason, L. (2018). Lethal mass partisanship: Prevalence, correlates, & electoral consequences. Paper presented at the American Political Science Association’s Annual Meeting, Boston, MA. https://www.dropbox.com/s/bs618kn939gq0de/Kalmoe%20&%20Mason%20APSA%202018%20-%20Lethal%20Mass%20Partisanship.pdf

Kennedy, B., Kogon, D., Coombs, K., Hoover, J., Park, C., Portillo-Wightman, G., Mostafazadeh, A., Atari, M., & Dehghani, M. (2018). A typology and coding manual for the study of hate-based rhetoric. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326488294_A_Typology_and_Coding_Manual_for_the_Study_of_Hate-based_Rhetoric

Klinger, D. A., Rosenfeld, R., Isom, D., & Deckard, M. (2016). Race, crime, and the micro-ecology of deadly force. Criminology & Public Policy, 15(1), 193-222. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12174

Kripfganz, S., & Schneider, D. (2018, September 7). ARDL: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models. Presentation Stata Conference, London, England. http://repec.org/usug2018/uk18_Kripfganz.pdf

Kripfganz, S., & Schneider, D. (2023). ARDL: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models. The Stata Journal, 234), 983-1019. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1536867X231212434

Kwon, R., & Cabrera, J. F. (2019). Income inequality and mass shootings in the United States. BMC Public Health, 19(1), 1147. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-7490-x

Leopold, L. (2014, December 30). How runaway income inequality and racism are linked to police killings. United Steel Workers. https://www.usw.org/blog/2014/how-runaway-economic-inequality-and-racism-are-linked-to-police-killings

Lett, E., Asabor, E., Corbin, T., & Boatright, D. (2021). Racial inequity in fatal US police shootings, 2015–2020. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 75(4), 394-397. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jech-2020-215097

Lyons V., Gause, E., Spangler, K., Wellenius, G., & Jay J. (2022). Analysis of Daily Ambient Temperature and Firearm Violence in 100 US Cities. JAMA Network Open, 5(12), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.47207

MacDonald, J. M., Kaminski, R. J., Alpert, G. P., & Tennenbaum, A. N. (2001). The temporal relationship between police killings of civilians and criminal homicide: A refined version of the danger-perception theory. Crime and Delinquency, 47(2), 155-172. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128701047002001

Macrotrends LLC. (2024). U.S. murder/homicide rate 1990-2024. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murder-homicide-rate

Mapping Police Violence [MPV]. (2024a). Dashboard. https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIl4PYjbb5-gIVxNuGCh02PQ5-EAAYASAAEgLCc_D_BwE)

MPV. (2024b). Home. https://mappingpoliceviolence.org

Mekawi, Y., & Bresin, K. (2015). Is the evidence from racial bias shooting task studies a smoking gun? Results from a meta-analysis. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 61, 120-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2015.08.002

Menifield, C. E., Shin, G., & Strother, L. (2019). Do White law enforcement officers target minority suspects? Public Administration Review, 79(1), 56-68. https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.12956

Murphy, A. (2021). Political rhetoric and hate speech in the case of Shamima Begum. Religions, 12(10), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/rel12100834

NAACP Legal Defense Fund and Educational Fund, Inc. (2024). Justice in Public Safety Project: Framework for public safety. https://www.naacpldf.org/framework-for-public-safety/

Nagin, D. S. (2020). Firearm availability and fatal police shootings. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 687(1), 49-57. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716219896259

National Centers for Environmental Information. (2024). Climate at a glance national time series. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/1/12/2014-2019?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000 .

Nicholson-Crotty, S., Nicholson-Crotty, J., & Fernandez, S. (2017). Will more Black cops matter? Officer race and police involved homicides of Black citizens. Public Administration Review, 77(2), 206-216. https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.12734

Nix J., & Shjarback, J. (2021) Factors associated with police shooting mortality: A focus on race and a plea for more comprehensive data. PLoS ONE, 16(11), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259024

Nugent, W. R., Abrams, T. E., & Joseph, A. A. (2022). The relationship between violent

political rhetoric and mass shootings. Journal of Social Service Research, 48(2), 246–258. https://doi.org/10.1080/01488376.2021.2018089

Nugent, W. R., & Conway, A. (2021). Violent political rhetoric, generalized imitation, income inequality, gun ownership, changes in gross domestic product, and mass shootings. Journal of Social Service Research, 47(5), 694-713. https://doi.org/10.1080/01488376.2021.1902456

Obasogie, O. K., & Newman, Z. (2017). Police violence, use of force policies, and public health. American journal of law & medicine, 43(2-3), 279-295. https://doi.org/10.1177/0098858817723665

Oliva, J. R., Morgan, R., & Compton, M. T. (2010). A practical overview of de-escalation skills in law enforcement: Helping individuals in crisis while reducing police liability and injury. Journal of Police Crisis Negotiations, 10(1-2), 15-29. https://doi.org/10.1080/15332581003785421

Patterson, G. (2008, July). Police social work: A unique area of practice arising from law enforcement function. NASW New York City Chapter. https://www.naswnyc.org/page/77

Pesaran, H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616

Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335-346. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182

Phillips, S., & Kim, D. (2021). Exploring officer-involved shootings with interaction effects: A deeper understanding of how race/ethnicity interacts with other factors in the use of deadly force. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 48(6), 755-775. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854821997529

Piazza, J. (2020). Politician hate speech and domestic terrorism. International Interactions, 46(3), 431-453. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2020.1739033

Reeping, P. M., & Hemenway, D. (2020). The association between weather and the number of daily shootings in Chicago (2012-2016). Injury Epidemiology, 7(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-020-00260-3

Relia, K., Li, Z., Cook, S. H., & Chunara, R. (2019, July). Race, ethnicity and national origin-based discrimination in social media and hate crimes across 100 US cities. In Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (Vol. 13, pp. 417-427). https://doi.org/10.1609/icwsm.v13i01.3354

Schwartz G. L., & Jahn J. L. (2020). Mapping fatal police violence across U.S. metropolitan areas: Overall rates and racial/ethnic inequities, 2013-2017. PLoS One, 15(6), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229686

Sewell, A. (2019). The illness associations of police violence: Differential relationships by ethnoracial composition. Sociological Forum, 32, 975-997. https://doi.org/10.1111/socf.12361

Soral, W., Bilewicz, M., & Winiewski, M. (2018). Exposure to hate speech increases prejudice through desensitization. Aggressive behavior, 44(2), 136-146. https://doi.org/10.1002/ab.21737

Sorensen, J. R., Marquart, J. W., & Brock, D. E. (1993). Factors related to killings of felons by police officers: A test of the community violence and conflict hypotheses. Justice Quarterly, 10, 417-440. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418829300091911

The Guardian. (2024). The counted. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2015/jun/01/the-counted-police-killings-us-database

The Washington Post. (2022, January 1). Dec. 17 – 19, 2021, Washington Post-University of Maryland Poll. https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/dec-17-19-2021-washington-post-university-of-maryland-poll/2960c330-4bbd-4b3a-af9d-72de946d7281/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2

United States Census Bureau. (2022). Income in the United States: 2021. https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2022/demo/p60-276.html

University of Michigan Carceral State Project. (2021). Policing & Social Justice History Lab. https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/dcc-project/policing-social-justice-historylab/

Wertz, J., Azrael, D., Berrigan, J., Barber, C., Nelson, E., Hemenway, D., Salhi, C., & Miller, M. (2020). A Typology of Civilians Shot and Killed by US Police: A Latent Class Analysis of Firearm Legal Intervention Homicide in the 2014–2015 National Violent Death Reporting System. Journal of Urban Health, 97, 317-328. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-020-00430-0

Wheeler, A. P., Phillips, S. W., Worrall, J. L., & Bishopp, S. A. (2018). What factors influence an officer’s decision to shoot? The promise and limitations of using public data. Justice Research and Policy, 8(1), 48-76. https://doi.org/10.1177/1525107118759900

Wooldridge, (2020). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach (2nd ed.). Cengage.

Worrall, J. L., Bishopp, S. A., Zinser, S. C., Wheeler, A. P., & Phillips, S. W. (2018). Exploring bias in police shooting decisions with real shoot/don’t shoot cases. Crime & Delinquency, 64(9), 1171-1192. https://doi.org/10.1177/0011128718756038

Zeitzoff, T. (2018, August 17). What violent rhetoric does and does not do. Political Violence at a Glance: Expert Analysis on Violence and its Alternatives. https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2018/08/17/what-violent-rhetoric-does-and-does-not-do/

Zeitzoff, T. (2019). The nasty style: Why politicians use violent rhetoric. Author. zeitzoff_nastystyle_violentrhetoric_draft_nov2019.pdf

Downloads

Published

2024-07-18